Video of a presentation I gave to an evidence group of the Welsh Government in September 2021:
Introduction:
So over the last couple of weeks, we had a very rich news feed in terms of agriculture and the future changes andimmediate evolutions of the carbon dioxide production problem we also faced some remaining supply chain issues, possible price rise for both inputs and actual outputs and food prices, as well as the postponement of the implementation of the new future actual policy was announced.
So after nearly three years of fieldwork in Wales, I think now more than ever, we think we are think Wales is coming at a fork is at a junction, and we might be halfway through it. And there are already many consequences that we can witness on the Welsh farming fabric, as well as the functioning of rural areas.
Today, farms are facing a new wave of uncertainty very wide. And it really leads to day to day farming. Farmers making decisions that are based mostly on a market which deemed relatively stable and supportive while leaving them their freedom, compared to the changing context in terms of subsidy or regulation that is seen as dangerous or tricky to deal with.
Costs are rising quite fast. And small farms, particularly the tenanted one, particularly on the low added value productions, and that do not have protected land or registered land might be the one that will be in trouble in the years to come before we establish a new scheme. Because they are the most fragile and the most dependent on the BPS payments. So we clearly need to make sure that we do not forget this high number of farms.
On the flip side, we also have an hunger for land. Many farms type are expanding on more land to cater for regulation needs or due to development of their production to match reduction in BPS funding by an increased work productivity and output from the farm. This kind of vision can compensate the remove all of the bps on the land market. And overall, it will keep favouring incumbents and will not be a solution for new entrants into farming.
We might be at the eve of a new selection between farms that might in the continuity of what we witnessed in the past years, a climb up or a climb down and it might have consequences on the environment, leading to a higher input dependence inputs (that are imported into Wales and are not produced in Wales) may lead to a more pressured land market.
While we all realise that farmers were dealt very different ends depending on where they seat in Wales, landscape, opportunities etc. A selection, specialisation and concentration of farms took place in a competitive market context. In the farming context created, there is little room for new entrants, except on a relatively low number of production that do not necessarily fit within the goals of the future agricultural policy as published by the Welsh Government. There's a lot of current uncertainty that could lead to choices that will clash with directions set out by this policies. Finally, while I've been talking a lot about a two sided actual sector, a two sided land market, I think the SFS might fall short of its ambition due to the fact that the wider context of farming needs to be understood and encompassed into the policy discussion, to be sure that we do not miss anything and we do not loose many farms.
Théo Lenormand
