I am not a UK national. My family and most of my lifelong friends live on the other side of the channel. I arrived quite recently into the UK to pursue an Academia opportunity that opened up for me. Knowing very few person, having worked on my own since the start of my position, I am obviously quite dispirited in the face of continuing Covid restrictions – but this could be said for every young people living on its own in the UK. I am baffled by the inadequacy of the covid crisis management by UK governments - and most Western Europe governments.
The failure of short-termism focused governments
A year ago Europe was too infatuated with herself to swiftly react in order to close its border and prepare for the silent, invisible time-bomb. Sure, China remorselessly mislead us and delayed alerting the international community on the scale of the problem caused by the virus until it was too late. China didn’t close its borders. But neither did we.
Mesmerised by how vital for our economy the globalisation fluxes were (either freight or passenger), our governments did not act. Leaders would have had to restrain our liberties, shackle our rights in an unprecedented fashion against this silent and then theoretical threat. Though we had no PPE, no testing capacity whatsoever it was quite late when Europe went into lockdown (We even offered some PPE to China and Italy). We smeared at China or Italy and then realised with dismay that it was our turn. The virus was already here nested in our communities spreading it’s deadly wings.
Our democracies found it appropriate to lie and backtrack on essential technical elements to hide how unprepared we were. The ultimate failure of short-termism government with a blood splattered background. We failed again and again with the lies and overzealousness towards economic recovery. In the UK some tried to unite us around the sacralised NHS to foster compliance with the wobbly ever-changing guidance. It failed.
Wasted is our past unity and union, it crumbled away as months of restriction slowly went by (In a year Wales spent roughly 40% of it's time in lockdown). The governments failed to make the recovery lasting. In short, the recipe to cook us a safe life with Covid was wrong and it keeps turning sour.
Covid is a stealthy virus that has been while restrictions to curb it's spread were not enforced
This is why compliance with the rules is so important even if we don’t feel ill.
That’s why this virus can spread so easily, all the more if we mix and travel.
And this is where governments keep failing us.
I hope you like outdoor activities because so far they represent the only unchecked activities outside of "work"
Restrictions on movements have been in place for months since last year, seldom have we seen checks, let alone fines for not abiding by the rules. Compared to Australia or New Zealand we (UK or EU) never had real border restrictions (for entry or exit), a long list of key people could travel unbothered (even after the quarantine on entry was introduced the checks were only on 1/10th of international travellers). A PCR test on entry is only required since last January.
Hotspot region inhabitants in the UK have been able to travel unchecked and mix, including across borders that were supposed to be closed. Unchecked weariness can only end badly as our will is slowly going away. All the more when the restrictions imposed on us seem long and ludicrous.
Finally let’s take a long, hard look at schools and workplaces the only places that are judged paramount to our survival with shopping. They represent unchecked potential Covid clusters where the virus thrived and thrives. A diktat separation things dubbed essential and those that are not. As if our well-being, the societal aspect of our life were not essential to our balance.
So many of us have died or suffered because they couldn’t shield with the lack of appropriate government financial support schemes for precarious people. It bites hard some of those who are weak but cannot avoid those Covid hotspots.
How are we supposed to track and trace efficiently when so many asymptomatic people roam around. Guidance on testing still recommends it only for symptomatic people in Wales (01/2021).
Are we stuck in a Covid loop?
The UK governments knowingly fostered an appropriate substrate for Covid cases to remain high and the virus circulating (it still circulates today after month of lockdown). It backfires every now and then with the appearance of new Covid variants (no later than couple weeks ago one was discovered in Manchester), indeed, the more cases of Covid the more likely is a new variant to appear (Biology wise).
The only positive development in the UK government policy has been the efficient vaccination policy with an ample supply of doses and swiftly rising vaccination rates. But if the crisis had been managed properly there wouldn’t be a need to rush through the vaccination process. The choice to wait 12 weeks for the second dose without any solid scientific evidence compared to the 3-4 weeks recommendation certainly made it look like it. Nevertheless vaccination as shown in Israel it certainly seems as a way out if we are able to make it through the whole population.
Wales had different lockdowns timeframes than England but the influx of unchecked visitors sometimes from Tier 3 - high risk areas played a part in the continuous state of lockdown.
In the meantime what should we do? Depending on our goals obviously?
- Course of action number 1: We enforce a zero Covid policy
For the last months it really felt the governments wanted to attain zero Covid cases (Or what are those lengthy restrictions for?) but we are no way near that goal right now and restrictions have been lightly enforced. To fight the virus we don’t need mottos or slogans we need bravery, scientific advice, appropriate support and enforcement. In that case it is a pre-requisite to any relaxation in the blurry set of do and don’t that are in place.
We need to eradicate the virus for the vaccine to be effective and not have new variants popping everywhere. As long as the virus is still circulating we will never be free, vaccine or not vaccine.
Now we can do some wishful thinking and give couple sets of ways to curb the virus.
- To avoid international travel including for freight carrying purposes, unaccompanied freight is here to help us and strict quarantine rules (and equalitarian! Now there is still a list of exceptions 03/21 and EU countries are still not in the red list - with hotel quarantine - despite very high COVID variant cases, including South African). If we want to be New-Zealand we need to barricade our borders properly.
- Hard and short lockdowns where you are not allowed out of your houses and restrictions for hotspots areas (county levels are definitely not adequate as a containment area) should be checked through effective quarantines enforced by the police and the army. Government support will have to be ramped up for those in the given areas.
- Deterrent fines at way over 1000£ (but an appeal system) on non-compliance will quickly stem any willingness not to respect the rules (including on mask wearing, outside gathering...). And checks. Both for workplaces and on individuals.
- Testing has to be generalised. Scaled up free tests for everyone for any purpose.
- And maybe clearer rules on distance on which we are allowed to roam.
But the truth is it has been too long a time under restrictions. So one can only wonder what we would be ready to sacrifice again.
- The second course of action: Cases are low which mean we can reopen
Cases are low and we deem it is not necessary for people to be in lockdown anymore and we relax rules while retaining physical distancing. Possibly until a third wave. Given were we are now it would make sense as cases are plateauing. A localised approach on hotspot crackdown as described above could help deal with some outbreaks. After months of restrictions this would come as a delightful respite, for those who didn't abide by the rules it wouldn't change a thing, those who feared Covid (or transmitting it) would probably be as careful. Clearly this could mean that variants could endanger the Covid immunisation process.
Nota: But there is one slight problem, shielding individuals. People relatively weak towards Covid or not feeling safe with it should still have a right to protect themselves by avoiding human contact.
- In Covid fight there is no middle ground
Fighting Covid is not an easy business as we gradually realised. We are dealing with individuals that pursue necessarily different life goals. A blurry set of rules not enforced, is as good as no rules at all. As one will interpret it from it's personal view. To fight this evanescent enemy, vaccination certainly seem the way out rather than the trying to enforce physical and social distancing. But we have to brace ourselves for new variants, and we need to make the vaccine readily available for new variant types. Maybe it's already time to consider a simpler approach to vaccination approval for new variant jabs. In the long process of evolution men and viruses evolve together in a restless dance.
Théo Lenormand
PhD Candidate in Social and Environmental Sciences
MsC in Farming Sciences, Agricultural Policy
BsC in General Sciences (Biology, Physics, Chemistry, Geology, Mathematics)
