Wales Climate Week 2020 - Farmer's are on the frontline

Wales is at the west of the UK facing the Irish Sea directly connected to the Atlantic Ocean. The main climatic factor here is the Gulf Stream (Metoffice); a warm water current from the Caribbean to the West of Europe warming up our atmosphere and buffering the continental climate that would be similar to Canada into a temperate climate. In general the climate in Wales offers mild temperature all year long with a high proportion of rainfall, a wet temperate climate.

Summer time is dryer and warmer than winter months. During winter rain is very present.

The dominant winds are coming both from the North-West and from the South-West (from the Atlantic). Those winds loaded with water from the warm Ocean evaporation reach the coast and as they meet the coast elevation discharge it through rain. The North-West winds particularly present during summertime tend to be colder and slightly drier than the South-Westerlies.

As a matter of comparison Wales has a similar climate to Ireland and slightly colder and wetter than Brittany (France).

Due to the Welsh topography; most of all it’s relief there is a gradient of both precipitation and temperature as it ascends. It means that Wales offers a diversity of climate conditions iot goes from:

• Mild and humid with low variations all year round
• To rather mountainous with a long winter and cold spells

Due to the nature of Wales valleys the wind can create some wind corridors orientated from North-West to the South-East & from the South-West to the North and East. The steep climb from the coast to the North Wales Mountains tends to accelerate the wind up the relief. On the flipside the ocean plays a buffer role for the coast mitigating any cold spell.

It is important to comprehend the microclimate that is witnessed in many parts of Wales due to its complex and dissected geography.

There are some repeating patterns in Wales over the localized weather effect and how it would impact a place:

• The exposed to the wind but balanced from the temperature and precipitation point of view coastal areas
• The exposed, cold, windy and invariably rainy Uplands and Hills through the year (Mountainous areas just being worse)
• The long and wide corridors of the Alluvial Valleys, a shelter compared to the surroundings hills
• The smooth rolling hills of the lowlands with a patchwork of protected and unprotected areas but less precipitations and wind. There is also a divide between the east side and the west side of Wales giving a marginal temperature difference.

These very informative maps are made by the metoffice and cover frost, sunshine duration, temperature as well as frost days. An easy way to visualise the differences between the different part of Wales.

Photograph from Geoff circa 1960's, welsh black sale in the yard of a farm

Farmer are very aware of the changes that they witnessed in their environment but they don’t always link it to climate change. A lot of farmer’s families have been farming in the same area for generations and are the memories of the place.

Farmers in general plan their farming system on a long term; on arable farming a rotation can last 7 or 8 years in some grassland based farm a reseeded grass lay can last from 3 to 10 years (or 20 or 30...). Planning means working around what you can possibly do owing to your resources and location opportunities.

For example matching the expected weather conditions due to the climate with soil potential, the farmers availability, the machinery, your type of cattle… You need certain conditions for a number of farming operations be it on livestock management, crop management, forage production and consumption.

We can have a look at the average data from the metoffice; we witness that climate change is happening in Wales. And not every farmer is impacted the same depending on where they are.

The first graph gives us the annual rainfall amount over the whole of Wales. We can clearly see that there has been a slight increase over the course of 150 years. Slow and gradual but nonetheless present.

The second one is looking at the mean temperature in Wales over a year. We can clearly that here the trend is on a gradual increase over the years. An additional 1.5 degree centigrade over the course of 150 years

The climate is getting milder and somewhat wetter (though precipitation are said to be more concentrated during winter time). Wales regularly has brutally changing climate events and there isn't any sound measure for those to assess precisely how often they take place.

It is a very interesting report to read with loads of very interesting maps for anyone interested in climate change or climate. Two small examples of things hard to find otherwise...

Finally another thing that is difficult to assess is the increased amount of extreme weather event all around the year and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.

• Either storms that batter the West part of the UK (We had quite a number of them this year)
• Continuous dry or wet spell that don’t match usual weather patterns (May’s drought in 2020)
• Blast of hot or cold weather that don’t match usual weather patterns (The Beast from the East in 2017)

Extracted from the UK Climate Projection 09 report; where has the rain gone? Orange for negative/ Blue for positive - W winter/S Summer

Extracted from the UK Climate Projection 09 report; Is there more storm ?

An example in Pembrokeshire (Sir Penfro), lowland territory of rolling hills:

Lowland territories farmers are mostly affected by dry or wet spells, the climate is still buffered by the sea.

Dry spells are less prominent than in the rest of the UK but can be damaging for corn crops, maize and most of all Potatoes, the local cash crop.

Potatoes and Maize will end up in different throughs but both require an ample and (relatively) regular water supply as well as relatively free-draining soil. For Potatoes a dry spell can 1. reduce the yield 2. reduce the size of the tubercules 3. increase unconformity. For Maize it slows down growth, it is able to withstand hot spells better while potatoes tend to need to be fungicide treated.

Dairy systems suffer on free-draining soils sometimes having to feed animals in the middle of summer because of the lack of grass available. Meaning an additional cost for farmers. Beef and sheep system are usually less demanding in terms of grass production and are not as impacted by a dry spell.

If some grass crops are shunted because of a dry spell it can cause a major problem for winter feeding.

Those who suffer the most are farmers relying mostly on grass for their milk output through summer. Organic farmers don't benefit from the post-drought kickstart offered via artificial fertiliser and can really struggle in dry weather if their farming system is too tight. A cow is not a machine and won't kickback up in milk yield after a hard time.

Spring Calving dairy systems are usually as stretched as the others because they tend to be heavily stocked and need grass as much as the others. Those with permanent pastures and diverse lays offering relatively low yield when fed to cows will wither better a dry weather. Those relying on Italian Ray-Gras might end-up with a dead-grass mat.

2018. This is France, the Cantal near Maurs, but this dry pasture might become a more common sight in Wales during dry spells. It is not unusual for french farmers to feed animals during summertime. Welsh farmers particularly those on free-draining land did feed their animals outside during dry spells.

Wet spells during autumn offer bad conditions for harvesting Maize or Potatoes (both require heavy machinery on a rather unstructured soil – compared to temporary or permanent grassland), farmer’s either wait and risk to harvest a poor crop, or go in inadequate conditions (soil still wet and clogged) and risk damaging the fields.

The yield or quality (either nutritional for fodder or the look/size) of demanding crops key to some farming systems can thus be dramatically impacted. The same goes for the planting season but usually the worst impact on soils can happen in autumn time usually not in spring (but it is changing fast...).

Planting, reseeding and harvesting require heavy machinery and usually several rounds of soil "disturbance"; low pressure tyre/ dual tyre and caterpillar have immensely improved things but these are still heavy machines. In case of a wet spell during planting or harvesting the whole rotation or crop system can be heavily disrupted, changes have to be made, additional stress.

Another huge problem farmers have been faced with in winter; milder, wetter and most of all continuous spells meant that they have more slurry (full of rainwater and yard water). Muck spreading that could be done during winter can also get complicated to do as land is too wet to access. The concentration of farms and their specialisation has often meant dealing with more animals, and reglementations have become tighter (especially since 2004/5). Some have to spread muck or slurry in less than ideal conditions for soil health and nitrogen/nuitrients retention.

Pembrokeshire’s winters are milder, storms are stronger but these doesn’t impact the crop or animal managements massively.

An example around Bala (North Wales – Goggledd Cymru) an upland territory:

Around Bala the impact of climate change was felt and voiced in a stronger way. The land is less free-draining and the climate is wetter, colder with vast stretches of mountain with low fodder production land – very rough grazing.

Upland landscape are heavily impacted by the changes in weather patterns their flora is evolving quickly, here rush and hard unpalatable grasses. This stretch has got wetter. The level variations of the Llyn Celyn supplying Liverpool with drinking water are an other testimony of changing times.

The weather definitely got wetter and milder over the years it had several consequences for farmers, and all this quite early on:

• In the 1970’s-80’s they gave up corn as it was getting harder to harvest and the prices were quite low meaning it was more interesting to buy it in.
• The flora is evolving really fast particularly on the highest parts (for example Molinia Grasses developing fast and rushes sprawling all over the place because they don’t die during winter anymore). (this was combined to some changes in grazing practices). The development of an unpalatable and tougher sword is a problem for a number of farming systems relying on those vast rough grazing areas.
• The slurry problem is even more of an issue than in the Lowlands, the gradual use of heavier and more demanding sheep/cattle (even the traditional breeds) has increased the time were animal are housed inside (not taking into account the increased number of people lambing inside). 
• Increased problems with some diseases and parasite (including ticks infestation, fluke-worm or foot-rot problem due to the changing weather patterns...) it requires more treatment for animals. A reduced grazing pressure doesn't seem to change much the pressure. 

With the housing period for cattle that increased gradually there are multiple challenges: an increased amount of muck/slurry to spread over the land (see next paragraph), an increased cost for concentrate/cake and bedding. It also requires more manpower and it's time-consuming. There are a lot of uncertainty about the date for the cattle to come in and out of the sheds but those long wet spells are a real problem for farmer that already face a long 6 months winter period.

The windows for operations on the land has been getting tighter. You don’t have so many chances to harvest (be it hay or silage), plough or renew grassland, fertilize... As the growing season is short every delay or lack of growth can have quite devastating effects. Particularly if farmers happen to be short of land or already low on money.

The combination of wet weather with farm operations using some machinery rapidly results on disasters (it can also lead to accidents on sloppy fields or loamy soils) on the heavy soils found around Bala.

A long dry spell means a lack of growth or sprouting for farm system that mainly do only one cut of silage (grass). On the flipside a wet weather spell in July delays the crop or means that the crop quality can be disappointing.

Needless to mention that the predominant beef and sheep farming system can’t afford bought-in food as easily as a dairy farming system.

Unpredictability of violent weather patterns has always been part of farming in this part of the country farmers are used to deal with it but the new weather patterns makes it challenging to secure the farming system. The extreme weather events happen with increased force or impact on the high parts of Wales, more animals can be lost.

If a wet spell combined with some winds comes along when lambing takes place, a huge part of the lamb is wiped. The few weeks before lambing and after are very demanding for the ewe if she is outside and faced with extreme weather events she might abort/abandon her lamb or die. Farmers that lamb outside are the most impacted but getting the ewes and their lambs out of the shed can be dangerous, all the more if those lambs are not lively enough (15-30%).

Nota-Bene: Some Agri-Environment Scheme commitment can clash with the necessities of the farm when faced with difficult conditions. For example a grazing prescription for the mountain but there is no grass left on the lowland...

At the beginning of this dreadful year I had the opportunity to participate in a study for Natural England looking at the impact of extreme weather events on Agri-Environment Scheme. The experience of farmers interviewed totally matches what I heard in Wales, the challenges and the problems. The future policies built by the Welsh government to support farmers and the environment will have to better take into account the fact that we live into a fast changing world. Prescription and dates to get to an environmental goal can be easily missed because of climate related events. What will be very important will be to have a quick arbitration and some built-in derogations.

What do we favour a environmental goal or the farming system (i-e cattle) and its financial viability.

For example; do farmer's have to replant at their own cost trees which we were subsidised and died because of the weather? Do we get the permission to cut the grass early because June and the beginning of July have been exceptionally dry and hot (after checking there are no nesting birds or butterflies...)? How to ensure options offered to farmers take into account potential hardships and don't leave them dry?

Don't forget the pressure that farmers face when their farms are already barely profitable and a overflowing workload and that they have to deal with additional pressure and hurdles. The arbitration system has to be quick, fair and local and it might be useful to have some relief fund set aside every year. These events are likely to come back, France has been giving drought relief to part of its territories for 2 years in a row. Australia farmers are ten times more impacted than in the UK in terms of loss of revenue and livestock. The climate down-under is even more extreme and violent. But the very liberal Australian government set aside some relief funds for them.

In the future we will have to adapt our farms and farming system to reduce their carbon footprint as much as we can as well as safeguard them against the woes linked to the new weather patterns.

Théo Lenormand

All pictures are from the author. All evidence provided is from the author fieldwork for it's master thesis and PhD.

French round of measure to help farmers: https://agriculture.gouv.fr/comment-la-secheresse-impacte-lagriculture