Update 16/06/2022: The first version of the full report is available. It is composed of 2 parts, the 47 pages of the report with its appendixes as well as the production system booklet including the differentiation of production systems. The Vale of Clwyd report also includes a number of clarification or addition that encompass all three study areas; around sharefarming and the diversity in dairy spring calving systems, local food production, broiler units or pedigree breeder.
Full report (including appendixes) (PDF)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B85ssivdCJ2a4ZONRaPpW9amNq4haYka/view?usp=sharing
Production system booklet and farm differentiation (PDF)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AoIXUUQXh-48XZ-HWesSvi7M4CSgUKMv/view?usp=sharing
Executive summary (including the economics) (PDF)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SJ3474t9aqhs015nhUV73ffQikAh0CFU/view?usp=sharingff
Abbreviations: Voc: Vale of Clwyd Pbs:Pembrokeshire DC: Dairy Cows MMB: Milk Marketing Board
1) Landscape: A lowland area organised around the Clwyd Vale with a relief and landscape defined by theglaciations:
Introduction: The Vale of Clwyd (VoC) is in North East Wales, it is a lowland area, oscillating between a large alluvial valley to small hills. A vast syncline, alluvialvalley surrounded to the east by the Clwyd Range to the east and by the High Clocaenog Forest to the west. The valley is dissymmetrical and is orientated from North (N) to South (E).
Geology and Geomorphology:
The bedrock of the area is diverse and typical of welsh lowlands, with a lesserpredominance of mudstone and increased presence of softer limestone/sandstone. The later have been more easily eroded by water by a main N-S orientated protoriver. The glacier in the vale dug out a U shaped asymmetrical valley from existingrivers. The bottom of the vale was then covered with sedimentary depositslinked to the glaciation first with some tills, in the valleys and alluvialvalley some alluvial deposits exist. The surrounding areas have been impactedby only superficial ice sheets, the erosion process restarted and gave some dissymmetrical medium sized hills with steep valleys. Finally at the mouth of the valley, closer to the sea thick layers of tidal deposits and blown sand have been deposited.
Climate:
The climate is temperate through with an increased continental element. The area is shadowed by Snowdonia in terms of rainfall giving it a dryer, profile, particularly over summer. Drought is quite a common problem in the area. With the Clwyd Range andthe drop to the vale there is a rainfall gradient from the West to the East (E) of the study area. Cold wind come from the E and N sides from which onlypart of the area is protected. Mostly protected valleys or their sides.
Landscape:
The first area would be the core, a wide protected alluvial valley surrounded by gentle slopes on soft substrates with a thick cover of alluvial deposits/till deposits of good quality: loamy, clayish. The further away from the river the lighter the soils. Even in the core of the vale there is a gradient from relatively heavy “wet meadows” to “light and dry” red soils. Due to the climate gradient there is an opposition West-East, though most of the area suffers from summer drought. Yields attainable remain high with an early start granted by the sheltered position. 2-3 weeks delay in growing can be expected between wet and dry parts. All those rest on permeable substrate, apart from winter on the floodplain, all those soils are rather free-draining and carrying.
The climb up from the East Side of the Core of the Vale towards the Clwyd Range (LT 20)
Smoother limestone hills can befound between the core and the mudstone hills. The bedrock giving rise to good free-draining soils (no more than 80 m of altitude) though of fluctuating depth with onlyslightly better drought resistance than on mudstone due to warmer soils.
Finally, by the coast there is a wide diversity of areas, salt marshes around the river, drained wetmeadows and fields beyond. There is an overwhelming tourism component there.
We could split the study area under 4 different agro-ecological areas that can be grouped
- Limestonehills pooled offering similar conditions to dry areas of the core of VOC
- Wetter Core of VOC and the farmed parts of the coastal area
- Wet West Mudstone hills
- East Dry mudstone and Clwyd Range
To summarise we have an area which benefits from a different climate compared to most welsh lowlands. Despite conditions that would not seem as favorable for grass growth all year long compared to Pembrokeshire it has a higher potential for high energy fodder production and crops. The margins don’t have access to such high energy fodder crops, the VoC even has some poor-quality rough grazing. Mostly on the Clwyd range but also on top of some hills on mudstone and limestone. This is a different context to the one in Pembrokeshire, closer to the uplands.
The area thus is shared between dairy farmingand different level of land/animal production intensity in Beef and Sheep production. Necessary to use some landscapes, an opportunity to value someproducts produced nearby.
2) An early 20thcentury context much more supportive than in Pembrokeshire supporting an early adoption of the agricultural revolution
- A lesser impact of past agricultural crisis on the VoC supporting “profitable” small mixed but livestockfocused farms. The VoC started from a slightly different position to Pembrokeshire, closer to England and important industrial centres. Closer to markets, VoC’s farms had been less impacted by successiveagricultural crises of the 19th and 20th century. “improvements”to the land had been thoroughly done, all the more down in the vale. Representative of this is the fact, most farms were finishing cattle and sheep in the 1930’s-1940’s. Farms were mixed with a strong manpower consuming livestock element (allowing them to resist to crisis); egg, poultry, pigs, dairyproduces… As well as some crops to feed livestock (corn, kale…) or the area(spuds…). There was a clear distinction in size between cottagers (10-20a),family farms (50-70a) and plas/home farms (200-300a). The third one had been the hardest hit by the crisis. The finishing and cropping benefits would be reaped by the Core and Limestone areas farms. Along the middle of the core vale there would be a high concentration of rather large “plas” farms.
- Which in turns fostered an early farmer’s owned culturewith small family farms and only couple larger farm holdings
It is clear that the arrival ofthe MMB in the 1930’s was not as big a step change compared to Pbs, farms were also featuring a much higher proportion of cropped areas on smaller acreages.Likewise the 2nd world war wasn’t as game-changing for farming systems. Another testimony of the comparatively positive market position was the rapidly dwindling estates from the 1920’s with a much faster and earlier farmer’s owned movement that in isolated Bala. The exception to this general position would be the mudstone hills.
- A widespread costly adoption of the early 20th century agricultural revolution with its costly tools
This also paved the way for an “early adoption” of the 20th century agricultural revolution in its motorized components and early buildings (costly tied cowsheds). Farms other than cottages, and particularly home farms could have 3 to 4 cowsheds or some steel-frame/brick sheds. This allowed in buoyant market conditions to increase the area in rotation to support more livestock. The harvest of hay (06 end), corn (08 end) or potatoes (09) is more “secure” (weather wise) than was the case in the South-West. But winter conditions tend to be harsher. This is true for all the area. Representative of these good crops and large herds for the time; on “larger farms” hay barns tend to be double the size of Pbs. The use of the mountain remained traditional, on par with what was observed in Bala though with slightly larger ewes. The adoption of “improved” breeds of cattle (Hereford, Suffolk, Welsh Halfbred, BritishFreisian…) took place earlier than in Pbs mainly linked to increased cropping. On the mudstone hills this was not as much of a possibility and the adoption wasslower.
This early adoption was using costlier buildings and the prices of land were higher than elsewhere, it would slow down the investment capacity for later phases.
3) A “late” specialisation using the 20thcentury agricultural revolution specialized tools compared to Pembrokeshire
Figure 1: For comparison purposes,general farming evolution drivers and impact. (By the author)
Mixed farming constituted the bread and butter of the Vale of Clwyd, in the 1960’s-1970’s the biggeststep change was offered by the possible use of fertilizer and imported animals feedstuff. It allowed farms to increase production and work productivity gradually on similar acreages while mechanizing different parts of the farming system. For example, the use of the milk pipeline, combines or battery hens shed. Asearly as the 1970’s the first farms, mostly cottages went out of production and quashed other farms hunger for land to increase production. This hunger for land materialized itself in the reclamation of vast mountainous areas (Clwyd Range) and Ffridd areas (Mudstone and Limestone hills) that hadn’t been ploughed before. Lambing dates moved forward combined to veterinary sciences offering massive increase in sheep production and finishing. Rotational grazing would benecessary on dairy farms, particularly over summer. The used of improved seedsincreased the potential of grass and corn combined with inputs and grazingtechniques allowed this jump in production.
Nota: Keeping sheep is possible even on specialized dairy farm linked to the climate,the grass growth dynamic in the study area or the possession of mountain land. It is an important difference compared to Pembrokeshire.
It is only in the late 1970’s that the area specialized more thoroughly into dairying on the one side, beefand sheep on the other side with the help of investment subsidies. It came withthe adoption of a specialized infrastructure. Both productions systems offeredgood level of remuneration at the time and the mix of land held , particularlydry land and mountain land influenced the choice of pathway.
Milking equipment came first (mostly herringbones) and then gradually silage. The adoption of grass silagewas quicker on the mudstone hills and on the limestone hills compared to thecore of the study area but overall it was later than in Pbs. Most of the farms would be autonomous equipment-wise except for combining. With the adoption ofgrass silage and the increase of herd sizes from 30 DC to 60DC (max 100-120DC) the acreage under corn went down and was gradually replaced by bought-in feed.It mostly disappeared on the hills. It allowed an additional cut of grass. The specialisation meant that most dairy farms dispensed with their beef and sheepherd if too small. This wasn’t the case of larger farms with 200 to 300a or more, those would also keep growing corn, keep beef cattle and some sheep.
Farm specialising in beef and sheep would adopt silage in the 1980’s (partially with big bales), they wouldbe characterized by either increased proportion of permanent pasture, mountainland in large quantity or large corn growing capacity to grow their own food. But even before it would have been possible to switch to continentals breeds (Limousin, Charolais…) as well as halfbreds breeding ewes (WelshXBorderleicester)(using gradually Texel tups) to fit market demands. More output and more muscly.
Some farms were being pushed outof dairying as early as the mid-1970’s if they didn’t invest in a bulk tank, going towards beef and sheep or renting-out the land. Those farms would mostly be smaller in size, located on the mudstone hills and the Clwydian range (with high proportion of permanent pasture, mountain land…) they would focus on beef (mostly stores) as well as sheep (fat). They would also adopt part of the aforementioned package. Egg sheds went gradually down as price of eggs went down.
Nota: Farms that increased size before 1970’s would have had access to a moreremunerating bottled milk market.
Nota: It is possible that former farmers-owned farms were way ahead in terms of sizeincrease in the 1970’s-1980’s.
The full implementation of the 20th century agricultural revolution in the VoC was gradual compared to Pbs, it shows the lower weather pressure felt by farmers of the area and themore positive market context. The specialisation in milk production was not as complete in the VoC due to the mix of landscape potentials available.
4) From the 1990’s an area transformed by successive crisis:
- A slightly different context for farms in the VoC to witherthe 1990’s, less expansion possibilities
As market conditions (described in the Pbs summaries) became more challenging, quotas dealt a blow to themany dairy farms that just had expanded with high interest rates. For those who could, trying to specialize and expand even more - following advice- within the limits of the milking equipment. If some acreage was available in the farm,some beef cattle would have been kept. But for large mixed farms, the quota system made sense to specialize on one activity, mostly beef and sheeprequiring less investments.
Nota: Some farms were also hit by the set aside as a larger number of farms werestill growing corn. Mostly bigger holdings.
The implementation of the new productivity package (Holstein, High yield ray-gras, Italian ray gras, cheap inputs) with production coupled subsidies, was linked to an increase in size. Mostly the feat of “large families” family farms, expanding without much paid labour. Ramping up the size of the herd towards 150 DC with yields of7-8KL. A limitation due to the grazing platform.
The expansion also took placeon beef and sheep farms. With some farms ramping up to 3-4K ewes and 100 Suckler Cows. With less manpower on the farm there would be a choice towardsone or the other. Even with cheap input, farms having some land in the core ofthe vale would still grow some corn and retain a higher autonomy than in Pembrokeshire.
The land market of the VoC changed from the 1980’s-1990’s. Many farms were sold or rented out altogether,from farmers retiring, including remaining estates farms releasing them forother uses. But also the arrival of new residential buyers purchasing small lots with houses to relet the land, at least partially (30-60a) – proximity to large population centre-. Putting additional pressure on the market. Besides the start holding size around the vale was smaller in the core, meaning that land sought out could be quite spread out. Purchasing whole farms would have been possible before the 1980’s-1990’s. After it was only possible on the hills. The denser number of farms here played a part in restricting fast increase possibilities.
Compared to Pbs or Bala the price of farmland is very high and has been for some time, on this good substrate, many family farms (smaller at the beginning) maintained themselves allowing them to purchase land. Price of land is approximately 30-50% more expensive than in Pbs.
Nota: Maize was not an option to increase farm production at first given the northernmost position of theVoC. It is only during the last two decade that varieties were adapted for theconditions.
At the end of the MMB dairyfarmers mainly went towards cooperative, most of those collapsing later in the2000, further reducing the growth speed. Dairy farms in the core and onlimestone maintained their renewal strategy based on spring corn and now wintercorn. This was not so much of an option on the mudstone hills. Many more farmswent out of dairying there, effectively playing a land reservoir role for theVale.
Nota:The VoC was and remain a hub for milk, sheep and beef production. Thoughabattoirs and processing facilities for milk have closed it features a highnumber of livestock market; Ruthin, St Asaph, Mold as well as a dense ecosystemof agricultural services provider.
- A late increase in farm size in the VoC compared toPembrokeshire?
The “late” expansion in the VoC for most of the dairy farms reduced the pace of immediate possible furtherevolutions in the 1990’s compared to Pembrokeshire. This combined to itslandholding profile not particularly adapted to graze large herds (moredisseminated due the smaller starting size of farms except on home farms) hadimportant consequences for post 2000 evolutions.
Nota:In 2004 part of the core of the vale was placed in a NVZ. It didn’t have such an impact as in Pbs due to the fact that it fell on “large farms” area withland to spare.
- Post 2000 evolutions and current production system
The increased possibility to grow crops/corn, particularly in the bottom of the vale allows some farm tohave a higher level of autonomy than in Pbs. There is some potato farmingin the vale but it is the feat of Cheshire’s farms renting in 50a or more fromsome farmers (B&S in the core, on the terrace). Likewise we notice a higher proportion of autonomy on some of the machinery (silage) than was the case in Pbs.
Despite farming in a busy area,having to remunerate a much higher land value, farms in the Vale of Clwyd and around have kept a greater degree of food production autonomy explaining this economic sustainability.
Overall the drain out of farming in the vale has certainly been similar to Pembrokeshire but the higher number of farms initially allows for a high number of farms to subsist in a differentcontext. Side areas were more impacted by the drain out of farming. The proximity to populated areas offers opportunities for off-farm work and other markets (keeping horses…) allowing the emergence of a 2- sided farming sector.
As a result we are witnessing a 2 speed agriculture more than in Pembrokeshire:
- Production focused in a highly competitive sector, high output from the land and high level of remuneration of land value .
- Numerous smallholders/part-time farmers can be found most of those would be with beef and sheep/sheep only with much reduced land pressure, possibly holding mountain land and with a different set of objectives. For example environmental management objectives or constraints… Unable to live fully from the farm economic activity, they depend on subsidies or other income sources; working aside of the farm, long-term lets, holiday lets, small campsite.
- But still adevelopment of an intermediate category, with a lesser pressure on differentoutput channels, egg producers (selling partly locally), dairy transformation (ice cream, vending machine…), or going organic...
6) Economic Analysis Vale of Clwyd:
The economic results derive from the archetype from the historic analysis, we identified archetypical types of farming. We present the economic performance of 14 archetypes and their multi-fold variations represent the diversity of enterprises in the areas. Those archetypes can be seen in more details here. Though the area only covers 65-70 interviews and we offer here 30 variations we note that the VoC economic analysis features a detailed analysis of poultry farms, spring calving development, farms selling pedigree livestock, farms selling locally their produce, for which the interview data of some other study areas was used. This is in order to give a more complete view of the diversity of structure at a welsh scale.
Our economic analysis is built comparing farms as family farms: All monetary values are in pounds sterling £2018 values. All the economic analysis is based on an average year for the farming system.
Definitions: by Raw Product (RP), we mean the value of the farm’s output; by Intermediate Consumption (IC), we mean the value of all intermediate inputs used to produce the output on a regular basis (i.e. bought-in feed or fertiliser, but not buildings). Capital depreciation (DK) represents the annualised cost of farm infrastructure. Added Value (AV) is the difference between the RP and the costs: it represents the economic value created as a result of on-farm production.
By looking at the agricultural revenue (Added Value - Taxes - Interest - Rent + Subsidies)(before tax), we compare different farms regardless of their business structure, important in this case as Dairy Spring Calving systems have different arrangements to family farms. Agricultural revenue is therefore examined per full-time equivalent “family worker” (or partner) working on the farm.
AV per worker shows the different level of labour productivity of the economic activity of farming (Cf Graph 1).The AV per hectare shows how big a spread there is, in terms of land use intensity, for economic activity (albeit more decoupled from the land for poultry systems than the others)(Cf Graph 2).
- Added Value and Raw Product for farm in the VoC, few productions are rewarding (Cf Graph 1 and Graph 2):
Graph 1: Economic performance in the Vale of Clwyd per hectare (By the author, from fieldwork)
Dairy systems are the ones with the highest raw production amount per hectare thanks to a high output out of the land. Intermediary consumption are way higher on dairy system than beef systems, the lowest ones will be found with heavily grass reliant systems. But poultry farms have a very high raw production but would not depend as much from the land while the local food systems (PSN5a and PSN12) fare well due to their higher selling price and not linked so much to land use intensity.
VoC farming system rely very heavily on IC (50-60% in general and up to 80% for poultry) this is due to their input use but as well as their low owned working capital, contractors are still important albeit less than in Pembrokeshire. Even low inputs dairy system rely heavily on it as a result even if they use less inputs than DCY and DCA systems. Beef and sheep system return low output per hectares in general although finishing or adding a heifer rearing activity can help, but all those are relatively savvy in terms of inputs use per hectare. Switching to the per worker analysis shows a more balanced view in terms of output production and input consumption across systems, the work productivity differences are not as stark as per hectare.
Added value in production system is linked to a balance between the amount of money you can get for your output and how much inputs you use in your production process.
Graph 2: Economic performance in the Vale of Clwyd per hectare (By the author, from fieldwork)
We note the weight of investment for poultry farms and their nearly similar AV/worker and per hectare for different structures and production types that could be linked to the “integrated” nature of those. Contrary to Pbs the systems that have a very high AV/ha are not only the one who did invest in expensive farm equipment at some points to reach an ever higher work productivity, more important would be the type of output sold and the input use. All AV/ha are over 900£/ha on dairy systems but under this threshold for beef and sheep systems (except the local producer). Finishing cattle or rearing heifers allows farms to hike up their economic performance at the cost of increased IC and DK.
- An lesser spread in terms of Agricultural Revenue compared to Bala (x8 vs x 17), small farms and beef and sheep farm rely heavily on subsidies, developing production are less reliant than historical ones (Cf Graph 3):
The average agricultural revenue per family worker for dairy farmers over 100 DC in the VoC doesn’t rely much on subsidies to get over the 30K£/year threshold, like in Pbs 10-25% of the revenue is from subsidies. Dairy farmers under 150 DC not organic struggle to reach 20K£/year/family worker without subsidies, particularly if on a mixed system. All share farming archetypes despite a encompassing definition of a family worker (any partner) still return good level of income. The hyper specialisation of farms allows them to extract themselves from a landscape dependence. Poultry farming fares well but not as well as dairying with very low level of dependence on subsidies.
Graph 3: Agricultural revenue per family worker (before tax) on the Vale of Clwyd modelled production systems (By the author, from fieldwork)
We can see that the Agricultural Revenue comparison between farms seems relatively reasonable compared to the AV spread. This is due to how heavy are loan interest payments, rents and salaries are, high added value system rely a lot more on hired-in work.
Every beef and sheep system is less remunerating than milk production and they rely heavily on subsidies, even when they rear heifers or finish some cattle (and own all their land). Smaller beef and sheep farm could be in great danger due to their extremely low income without subsidy, under 15K£/yr the living wage threshold. The small scale of the beef and sheep local food system does not allow him to return a high income. The breeder system is one of the most balanced beef and sheep system in terms of subsidy dependence. Nearly all those are under 15K£/yr/family worker without subsidies from the CAP. The CAP payment represent from 50 to 100% of their agricultural revenue. Production systems producing store cattle are under the GlasTir scheme which allows them to get a higher amount of subsidies. Being able to fatten up beef allows for an higher agricultural revenue.
Finally support and rent-out farmers have an agricultural revenue between 10 and 25K£/yr being greater than corresponding beef and ovine systems and less subsidy dependent. It stills depends heavily on the partner farms and how they are doing financially and it mostly complements a retirement pension or another job.
Conclusion:
Among recent trends witnessed in the Vale of Clwyd there is a fast development of dairying with huge investments, infrastructure built or renovated. This is the case for most dairy farms apart from those on “alternate paths”; diversifying their outputs selling channels, Most dairy farms move towards even more specialised systems (autumn calving, heifers reared somewhere else…) to deal with the constrained farming landscape.
Many farms in a precarious position have exited the business in the last decade and will continue to do so, albeit gradually. Sheep numbers are down as a result of this specialisation and the Brexit liquidation is the feat of smallholders, specialist herds tend to increase their numbers, all the more in a context like the last 2 years.
The Vale of Clwyd is not a land of unlimited possibility, It’s supply is finite and it’s land use has been complementary something which might be hard to preserve without remunerating subsidies. On the other side, the milk field is building up and is gradually annexing uplands, pushed by a positive market in a difficult and uncertain context. It is unlikely that any other production could emerge, if on a small scale and case by case opportunity
Théo Lenormand
09/03/2022
